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June 13, 2004

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MG

In your previous mumblings, you have shown yourself to be a willing and often delighted skewerer of unquestioned dogma that others in your field have blithely mooed for years. I have found this to be mildly amusing on occasion, and it gives me hope that you will take the time to respond to the following proposition.

Economics is a study of data sets, and economists have performed remarkably well in squeezing out even a single iota of non-obvious predictive value given the lack of tools or controls. It is peculiar to me that, under such challenging circumstances, economists insist on imposing an unnecessary extra burden on their conclusions. I speak of the curious need to refer to "causation" as part of the analysis of correlations and data sets (synonyms: effect of X on Y, influence of X on Y; non-synonyms: linkage of X and Y, relation of X to Y). Many economic research papers actually have an "hypothesis" section where causative links are proposed - and then the data sets are analyzed for predicted correlations and the best "explanation" is selected (as a random example, I found this structure in a paper by Julian Betts, but I'm sure your readers can open a random page in any issue of any economics journal and see the same - ftp://weber.ucsd.edu/pub/jbetts/Papers/BRDP95.pdf).

Why a hypothesis? Why the need for explanations? If an investigator finds that, in his data set, outcome X shows the best correlation with input Y, why is that not enough? If you lot want to act like scientists and use words like hypothesis, try to think like scientists.

I can feel your readers thinking me a complete idiot. I believe the counter argument, with epithets and feelings removed, could be reduced to something like this: many good correlations can be found, but only some are causative, and even in those, B will correlate with A when A causes B; if predictive value is needed, non-causative correlations will have little value (and lead to bad policy). If poverty correlates with probability of being incarcerated, it would not make sense to let everyone out of prison and expect poverty to disappear.

True that. But let me propose the following for class discussion:

1. Causation is a figment of the human imagination, an artifact of not being able to perceive time in the same way as the other three dimensions.
2. Causation is not an intrinsic property of data, it is tremendously difficult to detect and even harder to demonstrate experimentally.
3. Policies based on "causative" relationships have embarrassingly unpredictable outcomes.
4. Correlation is easy to detect, to calculate, and to compare to other correlations.
5. Among correlations between A and B(1) - B(n), the best correlation (closest to 1) will have a higher predictive value than any equivalent of causation.
6. If one would like to design a policy that changes outcome X in a particular direction (e.g. increases graduation rates among high school students), one can rely exclusively on changing the input with the best correlation to X, without worrying about causation.
7. Not all good correlations are usable in this way, but the best one will be. And, it is probably possible to empirically determine how good a correlation has to be (say, 0.85 and higher) before one can consider basing a policy on it. To increase graduation rates, find the variable that best correlates with graduation rate and have a policy to change that variable.
8. Economists should be free to use their vertiginous math skills to seek out the best correlations, and limit their life's work to that.

These may not be worthy of nailing to the department door, but perhaps they point to a way of maximizing the value of you economists. Leave causation to psychiatrists.

MG

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